Subtitle:
The mistaken belief that breakthrough game success can be engineered through formula
Core Idea:
The gaming industry repeatedly falls into the trap of believing that hit games can be deliberately manufactured through analysis, resource allocation, and feature replication, when evidence consistently shows organic success defies such calculation.
Key Principles:
- Laboratory Conditions Myth:
- The belief that perfect combinations of design elements will reliably produce hits
- Resource Misallocation:
- Overinvestment in analyzing and replicating past successes rather than creating new value
- Correlation vs. Causation Error:
- Mistaking visible features of successful games for the actual causes of their success
Why It Matters:
- Development Strategy:
- Understanding this fallacy prevents wasteful pursuit of formulas that don't exist
- Creative Freedom:
- Recognizing the unpredictable nature of success justifies creative risk-taking
- Publisher Expectations:
- Realistic success models lead to healthier development environments and goals
How to Implement:
- Portfolio Approach:
- Spread investment across diverse innovative concepts rather than all-in bets on formulas
- Authentic Problem-Solving:
- Focus on solving real player needs rather than replicating successful features
- Process vs. Outcome:
- Develop sustainable creation processes rather than fixating on guaranteed outcomes
Example:
- Scenario:
- Publishers attempting to analyze and reproduce Darkest Dungeon's success
- Application:
- Multiple studios created dark, gothic RPGs with similar art styles and narration
- Result:
- Despite substantial investment, none achieved comparable success because they focused on surface elements rather than the authentic vision
Connections:
- Related Concepts:
- Trend Chasing Pitfalls: How following market trends usually fails
- Unexpected Gaming Hits: The unpredictable nature of breakthrough success
- Broader Concepts:
- Creative Risk Management: Balancing innovation and reliability
- Hindsight Bias: The illusion of predictability after outcomes are known
References:
- Primary Source:
- Industry examples of publishers funding "the next Fortnite" or "the next Balatro"
- Additional Resources:
- Research on hit-driven entertainment industries and success predictors
Tags:
#gamedesign #businessstrategy #innovationfallacies #creativedevelopment #risktaking
Connections:
Sources: